The Civilization Cycle

Someone recently mentioned an interesting fact in a brief conversation. Throughout human history we have seen the rise and fall of human civilizations and organizations, with each followed by a period of anarchy until stability and equilibrium are regained. This can be seen as far back as ancient Babylon, or as recently as the Soviet Union. World powers rise and fall, as do the ideologies, convictions, and morals of those powers. They each leave something behind, and it lives on in whatever comes after, but the original power ceases to be a factor, most of the time forever.
Of course my point and bearing have to do with the United States. There is a caveat in this case though, and one that may significantly affect the pace of the expected change. That caveat is technology. We are in the most technologically innovative period in history, and it is still accelerating. Everywhere you look, the entire world, not just a few countries, are changing and benefitting from the pace of progress. Communications have improved to the point that we live in much more of a global community than ever before. And so, transfer of information, ideas, and convictions is significantly faster than ever. Were Rome to exist today, I would wager that it would fall in a tenth of the time it really took.
The United States has had a very rich history considering how young a country it is. Borne out of a small group of ideologically diverse people who came to this continent to live out their beliefs, it quickly came to symbolize the concept of freedom and opportunity, and as such thrived immensely. Some will argue that the US was not a significant power until after WWI, but looking at the events of the 19th century one can see signs that this country was already well on its way to big things. WWI only accelerated this, it did not enable it.
After just over two centuries of existence as a nation, this country is starting to show signs of the inevitable decline. It lasted longer than the afore-mentioned Soviet Union, but its days may be just as numbered. And thanks to the amazing pace of technological development and progress, this decline will take a lot less time than it would have a half a century earlier, with potentially much more unstable consequences.
What are the factors of decline?

1. In my estimation, an ambivalent and deluded populace. The citizens of a country often firmly believe that things are still OK well past the time when they really are. Note the once again rising support for a President that has consistently proven incapable of governing wisely.

2. Cracks in the government system. While our system is still holding strong (see my other post on the amazing strength of the US constitution), it is showing signs of strain, and signs that it can no longer cope with some of the pressures placed on it. Challenges to rules that once formed the founding precepts of what this nation's ideals were all about, for example.

3. Widespread corruption. In this country this manifests itself mostly in the quest for position/power. Since the standard of living here is much better than any other place on earth, the issue isn't to rip off the populace to get rich. It's to retain one's influence and power as long as possible. Lobbies, "fund-raisers", constant campaigning, caring more about votes than issues, all these things are the sort of corruption I mean.

4. Inability to adapt to a changed world. Rome couldn't deal with the rising power of the northern tribes. Where it once held absolute power it was now being challenged, and didn't know how to deal with it. The US used to have a gentleman's agreement with the Soviet Union which ensured a balance in the world, and an established code of behavior that the two sides unconsciously (or consciously) agreed to. This is often parodied in spy movies, if you watch carefully. Now one side is gone, and the replacement doesn't play by the rules, and the US doesn't know what to do about it.

5. Isolation from the international community. America has been shunned before, and has also isolated itself from the world, but never while it was considered the leading Western Power. Now this country is increasingly losing international support. Only Britain, Australia and Japan, of the more significant (economy and influence-wise) countries out there are fully supportive of the US, and Britain is mostly in this state due to the government rather than popular sentiment (we'll get to see how this changes when Blair exits soon, to be replaced by a more conservative individual). The rest of the world is at least tentative, if not outright against the US. And the more worrying fact is that many of the countries that have been touted by the self-righteous US government as enemies of human rights are now garnering more credibility than the US itself. Iran has more merit in European circles than the US does. And the US has no choice but to conform with this view, as it can no longer afford a third war, thus validating this perception.

In fifty years we will be able to look back and identify the moment when the decline began. It will probably turn out to be sometime in the second half of the 80's, with the fall of communism. If the US is lucky, the decline will reverse, and this country will come out of it stronger than it was before, and more stable in the global arena. For some time at least. This would require amazingly insightful and strong leadership. But if the current trend continues, this country will quickly find itself out of favor in a global environment which is no longer mutually isolated, and is discovering very quickly that the odd country out is the US, not the rest of the world. There are two more years of the status quo before any healing can begin. All we can hope for is that the damage during these two years will be limited.

I expect there will be lots of blame to go around as well. I'm sure the British Empire blamed a lot of various external factors for the fact that it ceased very quickly to be a world power. In fact, most of the reasons can be traced to internal factors, and issues like those five listed earlier.

So, pull up a seat, get some lemonade, and watch the fireworks. Here's to the next fifty years!